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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.