Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
